Simone Marques Faria
Abstract:
Much of the losses in agricultural productivity is due to changing weather conditions during the growing season. Climatic conditions not only influence plant growth and development, but also largely determine crop productivity. At the same time, extreme weather conditions pose serious risks to agriculture, so the focus is on the climate risk of drought. The definition of drought remains an obstacle to the correct monitoring and analysis of this phenomenon. Thus, it's possible to verify the importance of understanding this phenomenon on soybean and corn productivity for the Goiás State. For this, the SDI, Z Palmer adap and ISNA adap indices were adapted, adapted to the climatic characteristics of the State. Spatial analysis of the drought indexes, seeking to verify the possible differences of the indices (SDI, Palmer Z) between the localities, and subsequently correlate them with each other and with the agricultural productivity. of soybean and corn productivity for Goiás State from 1990 to 2009. Regarding productivity, it was possible to observe that there were significant gains over the 19 years technological innovations. It's observed that the biggest technological gain of maize crop is from Goiás South Mesorregion, which has stood out in the Goiás productive scenario, justifying the fact that they have the largest producers of safrinha corn in the Goiás state. Soybeans culture in the State, have low technological gains this is due to the fact that it needs high investments, to achieve good productivity, in this perspective Mid Mesorregion, stands out followed by North Mesorregion, which has invested high in order to maintain a good yield. It was also verified that the behavior of the three drought indices and the productivity of soybean and corn showed a decrease in productivity, for the same periods of drought occurrence, for all Mesoregions analyzed. Although there is a correlation between the regression of drought indexes and yields, it shows us results contrary to expectations where there is no significance at the 5% level, for most of the years analyzed with emphasis only on the ISNA index that in 1993 for soybean and 2004 for maize, showed effect on yield, the other years showed no effect on yield as well as the Z and SPI indices.
